Li Lu said in his speech at Peking University in 2019, "In summary, what you invest in is certainty, and what you need to avoid is uncertainty."

To this day, the value of this statement continues to rise.

This year, the overall trend of A-shares has been volatile, with a pattern that first forms a V-shape and then an inverted V-shape, reflecting the increased concerns about the uncertainty of the future market and the subsequent economic environment, such as uncertainties in policies, external demand resilience, and the U.S. elections.

The key now is to avoid uncertainty and explore investment opportunities with higher certainty.

After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the macroeconomic foundation has become more stable, and what can be determined is that the economy can maintain the bottom line of systemic safety.

Lan Xiaokang, a fund manager at Central European Fund, believes that the domestic macroeconomy is showing a weak recovery, and it is inevitable that there will be stages where some data weakens, but we still insist that the domestic macroeconomy can maintain the bottom line of systemic safety.

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Dong Chen from Huatai-PineBridge further explained, "Macro policies have become more proactive, with the introduction of large-scale equipment upgrades, car and home appliance renewals, as well as policies in real estate and interest rates."

At the mid-year Politburo meeting, it was rare to point out that macro policies "need to continue to exert force and be more powerful."

In terms of fiscal policy, it was mentioned that the issuance and use of special bonds should be accelerated, and the long-term special government bonds should be used effectively to promote large-scale equipment upgrades and the renewal of consumer goods.

It should be noted that due to the slow issuance of special bonds and the decline in land transfer income, the pace of fiscal expenditure from January to July this year has been slow.

Therefore, it is possible that fiscal expenditure will accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the policy effects may be seen in the fourth quarter, which is worth looking forward to.

In terms of monetary policy, the reduction of existing mortgage rates is already a general trend.

Hu'an Securities has made a calculation that, according to the scale of the reduction in the interest rates of existing mortgages disclosed by the central bank in 2023 (the balance of eligible mortgages is 22 trillion, with an average reduction of 73 basis points corresponding to a reduction in annual interest expenditure of 150 billion to 160 billion), assuming that this time it applies to all existing mortgages (Q2 balance of 37.8 trillion), each reduction of 25 basis points corresponds to a reduction in annual interest expenditure of about 95 billion.

Although it is a drop in the ocean compared to the total social retail volume of 47 trillion, it can be seen that the policy is sparing no effort to stimulate consumption.

More than reducing the interest rates of existing mortgages, what can stimulate the market more is the expectation of interest rate cuts.

On September 19, the Federal Reserve officially announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut.

At the same time, the "dot plot" indicates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points by 2024, so there is still an expectation of a 50 basis point interest rate cut to come.

After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate spread and the weakening of the dollar can alleviate exchange rate pressure.

After the external pressure weakens, it is expected that there will be room for domestic interest rate cuts, which is undoubtedly a major benefit for the stock market.

Mo Haibo from Wanjia Fund also believes that in the second half of the year, overseas countries entering the interest rate cut cycle and the acceleration of government bond issuance in the second half of the year are expected to increase the volume of physical infrastructure work; there is still room for monetary policy, and the combination of real estate policies may still be intensified in the future, and it is expected that the economy will continue to improve in the second half of the year.

However, the implementation of any policy and its production of obvious effects requires a certain amount of time.

Dong Chen also said that it has a certain support for the macroeconomy, but it takes a process to be effective.

In other words, we cannot expect any policy to be achieved overnight, and if we do not see results in the short term, we should not consider the policy to be ineffective and thus look down on the market.

There are opportunities where there is controversy.

On the premise that the macroeconomic foundation can be maintained, which assets have relatively high certainty?

Rao Gang from Ruiyuan Fund believes that investment is pursuing attractive returns while bearing uncertainty.

Some high dividend varieties with reasonable valuations and higher profitability stability are still worth paying attention to in the context of the centralization of the social average rate of return.

Lan Xiaokang also believes that he will continue to focus on high dividend (big finance), upstream resources, and the Belt and Road Initiative.

In the first half of this year, funds generally flowed to large-cap stocks and dividend stocks, and the CSI Dividend Index rose by 7.75%, and the market's risk aversion sentiment was relatively strong.

The Ruiyuan Steady Progress Configuration A managed by Rao Gang, with a stock position accounting for 33%, mainly configured dividend stocks, and as of June 30, the performance in the first half of this year reached 7.64%, and in the past year it was 4.93%.

The Central European Dividend Enjoyment A managed by Lan Xiaokang, which focuses on low valuation and high dividend stocks, as of June 30, the performance in the past year and the past three years were 12.96% and 14.14%, respectively, ranking in the top 4% of the same category of Galaxy Securities.

The Central European Rong Heng Balance A, as of June 30, the performance in the past year was 16.29%, ranking first in the same category of Galaxy Securities.

Of course, having a high degree of certainty does not mean that it will always rise.

Recently, dividend assets have fallen into adjustment, causing a lot of controversy in the market.

On September 9 and September 11, the CSI Dividend Index fell by 1.69% and 1.94%, respectively.

Since July, the CSI Dividend Index has continued to fall, and as of September 13, the decline has exceeded 12%.

Is the dividend style market nearing its end?

In the case of low trading volume, some investors may leave the market with profits, which may be the main reason for the adjustment of dividend asset prices, and in the medium and long term, the logic of investing in dividend assets has not changed significantly.

Historically, when the dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index / 10-year government bond yield is greater than 1.5, the CSI Dividend Index is usually in a better opportunity area.

As of September 6, the dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index / 10-year government bond yield was 2.48 times, indicating that the configuration value of high dividend assets represented by the CSI Dividend Index is still relatively high.

From the outside, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, which is beneficial for the downward trend of domestic risk-free interest rates, thereby strengthening the logic of high dividend-driven dividend investment.

Zhang Yifei from Anxin Fund also mentioned that the overall trend of funds towards large-cap stocks and dividend stocks may be difficult to reverse before the economic fundamentals are clearly recovering.

At this stage, there is indeed a strong uncertainty, and the biggest difference between speculation and investment is actually on certainty.

Only by continuously doing things with certainty can we get compound returns, which is the real investment!