In the current severe and complex international and domestic situation, China's foreign trade has become an important support and highlight for China's economic growth with an unexpected increase.
However, the complex factors such as global foreign exchange market fluctuations, increased trade restrictions, and intensified competition in industrial policies among countries will be challenges faced by foreign trade.
Data on the import and export of goods released by the General Administration of Customs shows that, valued in RMB, China's export of goods in August was 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, while imports were flat year-on-year, with a monthly trade surplus of 649.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.3%.
Despite the domestic retail, investment, real estate, and credit data not meeting expectations, China's foreign trade has actively optimized the trade structure, and the stable foreign trade policy measures have achieved results, with an unexpected substantial increase becoming an important support and a rare highlight for China's economic growth.
Multiple import and export data have reached historical highs this year, with a clear recovery momentum in foreign trade.
After experiencing a certain degree of decline in 2023, it began to rebound at the bottom in February 2024 and has maintained positive growth in recent months, with the trade surplus also continuing to rise.
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Data shows that in the first eight months of this year, valued in RMB, the total value of goods trade was 2.86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, reaching the highest level in history.
Among them, the total export value was 1.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, reaching the highest level in history; the total import value was 1.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%; the trade surplus was 4.33 trillion yuan, expanding by 13.6% year-on-year.
Valued in US dollars, the trade surplus expanded by 11.2% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in the same period of history.
The rebound in exports to developed economies such as the United States and Europe, ASEAN, the European Union, and the United States are China's top three trading partners, accounting for 16.3%, 14.8%, and 14.4% of China's export share, respectively.
In recent years, the export share to ASEAN has steadily increased, while the export share to Europe and the United States has continued to decline.
Therefore, stabilizing exports to Europe and the United States can stabilize the basic plate of foreign trade.
In 2024, factors such as the United States entering the inventory replenishment cycle, France hosting the Summer Olympics, and the semiconductor industry entering the upward period have driven the improvement of demand in the United States and Europe.
Coupled with the low base of exports in 2023, China's export growth to developed economies such as the United States and Europe has significantly improved.
Valued in US dollars, since February, China's exports to the United States and the European Union have been increasing on a month-on-month basis for seven consecutive months.
In August, China's exports to the United States were 47.3 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4.94%.
Germany and France are important destinations for China's exports to the European Union, accounting for about 30% of the export amount to the European Union.
In August, China's export amount to Germany and France were 10.15 billion US dollars and 4.37 billion US dollars, respectively, with a significant year-on-year increase of 21.28% and 24.07%, driving China's exports to the European Union to increase by 13.4% year-on-year.
The export performance of high-tech products has improved.
The rise of the global technology wave has driven the continuous growth of high-tech product exports represented by automatic data processing equipment and its components, integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships, with the proportion of high value-added export commodities increasing.
In the first eight months of this year, the export of mechanical and electrical products was 137 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, accounting for nearly 60% of the export share.
Among them, the cumulative export of automatic data processing equipment and its components was 132.6 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%; the cumulative export of integrated circuits was 103.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 22%; the export amount of ships was close to 24.42 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 78.8%.
In 2023, the three major indicators of national shipbuilding completion, new orders, and orders on hand all showed double-digit growth, with the international market share ranking first in the world, and for the first time all exceeded 50%.
It is expected that the export of ships will continue to maintain high growth in the next two years.
However, facing the complex and severe international situation such as global foreign exchange market fluctuations, increased trade restrictions, tense geopolitical situation, and intensified competition in industrial policies among countries, there are also challenges behind the beautiful foreign trade data.
First, the economic downturn in the United States and Europe, and the decline in demand.
Recently, the US labor market has weakened, with the average unemployment rate in the United States rising to 4.2% in the last three months; under high interest rates, the real estate market sales are sluggish, and the US housing market has fallen into a "decrease in quantity and increase in price"; the borrowing cost of the manufacturing industry is relatively high, and the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom and bust line for five consecutive months; inflation is also continuously cooling down, with the August CPI year-on-year falling to 2.5%, the lowest in nearly three years, and the US economy has shown signs of slowing down.
The European economy has continued to be sluggish.
In the second quarter, the final value of the eurozone GDP was revised down to 0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with household final consumption expenditure shrinking by 0.1%, and the total amount of fixed capital formation decreased by 2.2%.
As the largest economy in the eurozone, Germany's GDP decreased by 0.1% on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the second quarter.
Due to the rise in energy prices and high inflation, the profit space of German car manufacturers has been squeezed, and the German automotive industry is in a crisis.
Secondly, the deterioration of trade conditions.
From January to August, the export amount of China valued in RMB increased by 6.9% year-on-year, with a significant differentiation between export quantity and price.
In the first seven months, the export quantity index of China was as high as 13.5% year-on-year on average, while the export price index was only -5.5% year-on-year on average, reflecting the fierce competition among export enterprises in terms of price.
According to the estimated export amount and quantity, from January to August, the export prices of rare earths, steel, shoes, home appliances, mobile phones, automobiles, and other categories were all negative growth.
Affected by this, the trade conditions have deteriorated.
Due to the relatively stable import prices, the domestic trade condition index (export price index/import price index) has plummeted from 110.8% in April 2023 to 89.8% in July 2024, reaching a new low in nearly three years.
This means that the same amount of exported goods can only be exchanged for fewer imported goods, and the trade is in a disadvantageous position.
Again, the export of the "new three" may encounter bottlenecks.
In recent years, the export momentum of the "star" product "new three" has weakened or even declined sharply, especially the export of solar cells and lithium-ion batteries has continued to decline for several months, and the decline is deeper.
Since June 2023, the monthly export amount of solar cells has continued to decline year-on-year for 14 consecutive months.
In the first seven months of this year, the decline further intensified, with a cumulative export of 20.23 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 31.2%.
Since January this year, the export amount of lithium-ion batteries has entered a downward channel, with the monthly export amount declining year-on-year for seven consecutive months.
In the first seven months, the cumulative export of lithium-ion batteries was 32.6 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 11.83%.
In 2024, the export quantity and amount of automobiles still maintained high growth, but the growth rate has declined significantly.
In the first eight months of this year, the export quantity of Chinese automobiles (including chassis) was 4.094 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, while the year-on-year growth rate in the same period of 2023 was 69%.
Although automobile exports can still maintain growth, there is a phenomenon that the growth rate of export quantity is significantly higher than that of export amount, reflecting the domestic market environment of "rolling", which promotes new energy vehicle manufacturers to seize overseas markets with low-price strategies.
This has already aroused the vigilance and opposition of economies such as the United States and Europe.
The United States, the European Union, Brazil, and other economies have already or plan to impose high tariffs on Chinese new energy vehicles.
To cope with the upcoming high tariffs, the "rush to export" by electric vehicle manufacturers in the previous few months is also one of the reasons for the high growth of electric vehicles, and it is expected that the export growth rate of new energy vehicles will decline further in the future.
Media reports, the European Commission has recently rejected several Chinese car manufacturers to avoid tariffs and proposed the European Union's minimum import price commitment, and carried out anti-subsidy investigations on Chinese electric vehicles.
Finally, the acceleration of industrial chain reconstruction, and the emergence of the substitution effect of emerging economies.
With the continuous rise of trade protectionism and the reconstruction of the global industrial chain and supply chain, Chinese enterprises face the uncertainty of export prospects and actively invest and build factories overseas to transfer domestic capacity.
At the same time, foreign-funded enterprises in China have also adopted the "China+1" strategy to invest and layout in emerging countries such as Vietnam, India, and Mexico, to a certain extent, replacing some product exports, especially for shoes, toys, and clothing products.
From January to August 2024, the cumulative export of shoes was 31.7 billion US dollars, continuing to fall by 5.3% on the basis of a 11% year-on-year decline in 2023; the export of ceramics was 14.4 billion US dollars, continuing to fall by 14.5% on the basis of a 12.6% year-on-year decline in 2023; the cumulative export of toys was 25.7 billion US dollars, continuing to fall by 2.2% on the basis of a 13.3% year-on-year decline in 2023; the cumulative export of clothing was 104.7 billion US dollars, continuing to fall by 1% on the basis of a 8.9% year-on-year decline in 2023.
The above industries are the ones that have been transferred abroad in recent years.
In the current severe and complex international and domestic situation, the total value of goods import and export and the total export value valued in RMB have reached historical highs, and the trade surplus has expanded significantly, which is not easy to achieve.
On the other hand, the continuous decline in the use of foreign capital, the central government has also introduced a series of policies and measures to promote the use of foreign capital, such as the comprehensive cancellation of foreign investment access restrictions in the manufacturing industry, and allowing foreign investment in the free trade pilot zones of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and the Hainan Free Trade Port to engage in the development and application of human stem cell, gene diagnosis and treatment technology.
This will attract more foreign enterprises to invest and start businesses in China, and will also further improve the domestic industrial chain and supply chain, enhance the value chain, and drive more exports.