**Preface:** Every now and then, discussions about whether the United States will decline and when it might happen emerge in the domestic public opinion sphere.

Over an extended period, despite ups and downs, these discussions have never ceased.

As the only superpower in the world today, the rise or fall of the United States is not a matter that can be judged arbitrarily.

It requires rigorous and meticulous arguments through humanities research and social science methods.

The conclusions drawn may not be entirely convincing, but they are allowed to be discussed and dissected, leading to a flourishing of diverse ideas and cultures.

This very process holds significant cultural value in contemporary human civilization and represents a considerable stature.

In fact, compared to the question of whether this superpower will decline, I am more curious about why generations of people on this land have been so dedicated and tireless, as if they were nihilists who steadfastly believe in the inevitable collapse of something and thus establish their own beliefs.

Will they make a mistake in life by surrendering their values to the thoughts and actions of others, leading to an absurd and extremely unlikely scenario of dying without a proper burial?

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Analyzing the inner motivations of our group from the perspectives of collective psychology and modern sociology is undoubtedly closely related to the national humiliation under the macro-narrative a century ago.

Remembering it does not mean constantly ruminating on it, but the social face under the smallholder economy requires those involved to adhere to almost all traditional concepts, even if they are full of dross, and to argue that they are the essence left by our ancestors.

If we truly respect our ancestors, we would not seek profit at the expense of altering their thoughts and actions to deceive future generations.

What needs to be inherited is not the specific dross concepts, but rather the transformation of our thoughts in line with the development trends of the times, surpassing our predecessors.

Only in this way can civilization continue to move forward.

Instead of being cowards who choose to escape and hide in so-called education of hatred, causing civilization to stagnate.

I've digressed, let's return to the topic of the decline of the United States.

Since so many people care about this topic every once in a while, as a writer, I am actually very happy, which means I can ride the wave of popularity again.

Next, I will delve into the topic that people care about the most - the decline of the United States.

By using mathematical and logical thinking, I will analyze whether the events are subjective conjectures of the majority or objectively existing facts.

Let's discern the discourses related to the decline of the United States and seek the truth from them.

They are: the debt collapse theory, the industrial hollowing theory, and the theory of inevitable defeat in war with China.

Let's first look at the so-called "debt collapse theory."

Regarding the federal debt across the ocean, it seems to set new records every year.

Ten years ago, its scale was less than 10 trillion US dollars, and now it has exceeded 30 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 120% of its GDP.

Looking at it alone, it does seem very high, but this lacks a reference for comparison and lacks systematic analysis.

Drawing conclusions based solely on this set of numbers is actually a lack of clear understanding and a conjecture based on subjective consciousness.

Therefore, we need to compare it with the debt situation of other countries in the world horizontally and analyze it vertically from the overall situation of its debt.

Only in this way can we draw a series of arguments that conform to objective facts.

Among the developed countries, although the debt ratio across the ocean ranks at the forefront, its GDP and per capita income volume also rank at the forefront, and its tax scale is also the most prominent.

Therefore, the ability to repay or refinance debt in the short term is undoubtedly very strong.

In addition, the subscription base of U.S. debt in the global main bond markets is very large, which makes the financing ability of its debt issuer, that is, the federal government, extremely strong.

By promoting the liberalization of transactions of core dollar assets within the global capital and financial system, it can collect huge seigniorage from financial giants such as Wall Street or the Saudi royal family.

This is one of the forms of power discount of the dollar hegemony.

This shows that the federal government only needs to invest the financing amount raised from U.S. debt into dollar asset projects with a net return rate higher than the interest on U.S. debt to be repaid, to ensure that the debt is sustainable and will not explode.

This does not even include additional taxes such as seigniorage, technology property tax, and cross-border corporate tax.

It is said that the scale of these is as much as tens of billions of dollars.

As for the continuous expansion of the debt scale, it is not a decisive factor.

If we discuss the long-term sustainability of U.S. debt, the aspects involved will suddenly become uncertain.

Just like the climate ecology in the future will deteriorate to what extent, even the most professional and authoritative people dare not make a 100% arbitrary judgment.

As for the evolution trend of things above a certain scale in the long future, it is even more impossible to speculate based on subjective conjecture.

We can only capture the so-called historical details based on the general characteristics of some things evolving in a linear pattern at present, and call it "forward-looking".

However, the more such elusive and variable things evolve, the more they can arouse people's desires.

It is so comfortable to dominate the fate of the thing at this moment, which is different from the reality!

Therefore, even if tens of thousands of people are eager for the long-term problem of U.S. debt, it is only to serve their own conjecture.

No one wants to know the objective facts and the ultimate truth, they only care whether God makes a choice consistent with their own thoughts.

Back to the main topic, let's put aside the position and only discuss the pros and cons.

To collapse U.S. debt, the following three aspects must be met simultaneously, and none can be omitted: First, the dollar is no longer the primary sovereign currency for settlement, reserve, and pricing in the global financial system, and the various forms of dollar hegemony have been substantially disintegrated, and the so-called seigniorage, technology tax and other additional taxes have come to an end; Second, the federal government has a long-term fiscal deficit scale of more than 3% of GDP per year, and the growth rate of its financing and investment income is long-term lower than the growth rate of U.S. debt yield or federal funds rate; Third, the global economic and trade order of modern human civilization has completely ushered in doomsday, and the market economy rule of law and transaction mechanism liberalization no longer exist.

The trust mechanism among various communities is difficult to build, and the progress of scientific paradigm and technology application has accelerated the self-destruction of human civilization.

Next, let's focus on the "industrial hollowing theory" which is despised and criticized by many people.

When it comes to the other side of the ocean, the first word that comes to mind for most people is "industrial hollowing".

It seems that this word has been used to describe the increasingly withering or declining industrial structure of the other side of the ocean since its birth.

However, what kind of state is industrial hollowing?

Is it really a bad thing for the other side of the ocean, so it is often pejorative?

Looking at the modernization process of the other side of the ocean, it was the largest industrial manufacturing country in the world at the end of the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century, and it was the largest exporter of goods trade and service trade in the world, as well as the most important importer of manufacturing upstream raw materials and other production resources.

At that time, the global main and cutting-edge industries were the most intensive, covered, and efficient, and the "three-sided warrior" was none other than the other side of the ocean.

If it was said that it would become a country with "industrial hollowing" at that time, no one would believe it, just like it was ridiculed when it was claimed that the Soviet Union would disintegrate one day in the future.

With the passage of time, modern human civilization has entered the post-Cold War era.

The essence of the first two industrial revolutions, namely fuel and electricity technology, has been popularized to every corner of the world.

The third industrial revolution is about to end, and large-scale computers, semiconductors, digital communication, the Internet, personal computers and other efficiency technologies have begun to grow rapidly and develop rapidly.

With the effective management of the capitalist camp, the other side of the ocean has extended the prototype of the global economic and trade order, and transformed the production factor of capital into two forms: financial capital and industrial capital.

Financial capital, thanks to Reaganism and the innovation of the financial industry model, led by Wall Street, has thrown out an olive branch to sovereign entities participating in the dollar financial system worldwide; industrial capital has invested in these places through the migration of the supply and demand value chain of low-end manufacturing industries to areas with lower production costs, and has generated continuous returns.

It first migrated from Japan to the four little dragons in Asia, then to the mainland of China, and then to Southeast Asia, India, Mexico, and Eastern Europe.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the original split into two parallel worlds' geopolitical pattern once again merged into a relatively unified situation of "one superpower and many strong powers".

At this time, the Triffin dilemma began to show its power: the other side of the ocean transferred the low-end industries and formed a global layout, leading to the gradual decline of the middle class that depends on industry, and its industrial areas have become rust belts; financial capital has always been in the ascendant, and the real economy structure has been split into two demand ends.

The industrial capital group maintains globalization, while the losers oppose globalization, and the financial capital group "exploits" both inside and outside, causing the wealth gap problem in the world to become more and more serious.

From this we know that the so-called "industrial hollowing" is just that the other side of the ocean no longer has low-end manufacturing industries, and uses these industries to layout the global order.

However, high-end manufacturing industry, as the anchor industry resource of the core assets of the dollar, and the forefront of science and technology paradigm and business model innovation, the other side of the ocean has firmly grasped it in its own hands, led by Silicon Valley, to open source and diverge core technology applications to all over the world, so that the dollar hegemony is based on this basis and stands firm.

In addition, its military industry's scientific research and technical application capabilities are unparalleled, and the fighter development technology of F-22, F-35, B2, SR-71, etc., which started in the 1970s of the last century and has lasted for half a century, is still ahead of other parts of the world.So, how should we define "industrial hollowing out"?

If it is only aimed at the mid-to-low-end manufacturing industries, then indeed, the other side of the ocean does exhibit characteristics of "hollowing out."

However, if it is aimed at the overall industrial manufacturing sector, not only is there no "hollowing out," but it also shows a dual characteristic of "high concentration" in high-end industries and efficiency.

In summary, due to the ambiguous definition of "industrial hollowing out," it cannot fully describe the state of a thing, so from an academic research perspective, it cannot represent the industrial structure and its form in any country or region, including the other side of the ocean.

As for the mainstream discourse on "industrial hollowing out," it is not necessarily a bad thing for the other side of the ocean.

As the analysis above shows, it has a positive role in integrating the global order, so the reason for its pejorative connotation is more due to the lack of clear understanding of it by those who discuss it.

To be frank, "industrial hollowing out" is not a weakness for the other side of the ocean, and those third parties who see it as a weakness either fear that it is not enough to be a weakness for the other side of the ocean, or they are just deceiving themselves.

What really makes third parties tremble is that the other side of the ocean, with its developed market economy transaction mechanisms and always fully open social forms, has firmly grasped Schumpeter's "creative destruction," Coase's "self-revolution," and Buchanan's "fair competition," these three institutional corrective capabilities in its hands, punching Keynes's "demand intervention" and kicking Samuelson's "factor isolation."

Although the history of the other side of the ocean is only a little over two hundred years, its development process is based on the full game of human nature that seeks profit and avoids harm, thus achieving a dynamic balance of social form that is infinitely close to Pareto optimality.

After analyzing the "collapse of US debt" and "industrial hollowing out," let's briefly discuss the argument that "a war against China is doomed to fail."

The reason for discussing this part briefly is that if the long-term collapse of US debt is a highly uncertain probabilistic event, then who wins or loses in our competition with the other side of the ocean is even more uncertain.

Such "foresight" is really hard to make a conclusion with a hundred percent certainty, so choosing to discuss it briefly is a helpless choice.

First, look at the "war" in which aspect.

If it is a competition in terms of physical quantities such as population size, land area, and altitude, then we will definitely outperform the other side of the ocean.

However, if it is a competition in current comprehensive national strength, it can be compared through empirical data, and the advantages and disadvantages can be divided into control groups to determine the winner or loser.

But if it involves a competition in future development potential, it will inevitably involve the participation of subjective consciousness.

Secondly, the argument that "a war against China is doomed to fail" has an overly absolute and unchallengeable power reinforcement attribute, which is an act of "drawing the target after shooting the bullet."

Whether it is a mechanical ideological stereotype in cultural concepts or a behavioral legitimacy set by a few elites for managing society, it is unreasonable and not orthodox from the perspective of empirical science and natural laws.

Furthermore, if we really want to seriously discuss why the other side of the ocean is bound to fail in a war against China, no one can find the most objective and convincing arguments.

To be honest, we cannot use this as a basis to paralyze ourselves, like the character Ah Q in the works of the great literary master Lu Xun.

We need to take the initiative ourselves, exert subjective initiative, and try to live in this world with dignity, not confused by any illusory concepts, and living out oneself is the most important.

Only in this way can we avoid any form of conflict with any power entity in the world, respect each other's right to life, property rights, and discretionary rights, treat people fairly, and take seeking social equality as our responsibility, not to rely on power or even eliminate it, to live out a strong self, uphold individual uniqueness, ethnic diversity, and cultural multifacetedness.

In this way, not only will the other side of the ocean be bound to fail in a war against us, but we will also completely wake up from the dregs of the original society's hierarchical consciousness and even the education of hatred towards the same kind, thus eliminating the historical rhyme of "injuring the enemy by a thousand, and damaging oneself by eight hundred."

Fortunately, today's human civilization has entered the process of modernization, not only is nuclear deterrence playing a positive role, but there is also the free humanistic value concept that respects human "can do and can not do," and the market economy rule of law system that promotes the free trade and full circulation of various production factors in society.

For this, I am gratified by the fruitful achievements of modern civilization, although I worry that autocracy and even totalitarianism will destroy all this, I also firmly believe that evil will not prevail over good, and in the end, it will inevitably be the side of justice that wins.