**Preface:** Recently, the Federal Reserve concluded its latest interest rate decision meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate at 5%-5.25%.

Initially, this was in line with market expectations and did not cause significant fluctuations in investor sentiment.

However, a few days later, for reasons unknown, the US dollar index suddenly plummeted, US Treasury yields hit historical highs, and the three major US stock indices experienced a sharp decline, particularly the Nasdaq, where all technology-related stocks faced varying degrees of decline, with the "Seven Sisters" led by Nvidia falling by 3%, wiping out over a hundred billion dollars in market value.

The recent performance of Asian stock markets has been similar, with the downward trend leading the US stock market by at least two days.

At that time, some speculated that it was an action taken by the other side of the ocean to harvest Asian financial assets.

Unexpectedly, the global stock market was facing a decline, just to varying degrees.

Additionally, the Japanese yen's exchange rate against the US dollar rose sharply from a range of 1:160 to the current 1:140 due to the Bank of Japan's strong interest rate hike policy.

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The narrowing exchange rate between Japanese and US currencies indicates that US dollar assets are about to face a wave of devaluation pressure due to the decline in the US dollar index.

At that time, the Federal Reserve may have to consider lowering interest rates ahead of schedule or taking open market operations and other measures to stabilize market sentiment, to avoid liquidity traps or financial stampedes and runs, and even the collapse of asset management institutions or large banks, thereby triggering a financial crisis or causing systemic risks to the global financial system.

The main reason is that the US macroeconomy has triggered the Sam recession indicator, that is, the unemployment rate has been above 3% for the past 12 months, and the core inflation rate has remained high.

It is said that as long as this indicator is triggered, it will lead to a general recession in the US macroeconomy within the next 12-36 months, and historically, as long as this indicator is triggered, it will lead to a decline in the US economic growth rate, which can be said to be tried and true.

Therefore, it is estimated that this time it is also difficult to escape the historical law, and there will be a recession, either small or large.

In fact, as early as three years ago or even longer ago, experts predicted that the US economy was about to enter an unprecedented recession.

The basis for this prediction was that the economic structural imbalance caused by the once-in-a-century pandemic would become more and more serious.

However, the Federal Reserve's early implementation of unlimited quantitative easing measures provided financial relief for the federal government.

The federal government accurately and reliably distributed this liquidity to the hands of the grassroots people, and helped small and medium-sized enterprises to smoothly pass through the asset-liability sheet recession, liquidity traps, and many other difficulties brought by the epidemic, and effectively alleviated the problem of economic structural imbalance.

As a result, this made the originally inevitable economic recession delayed to today.

Looking at the past three years, the overall average growth rate of the US macroeconomy has been maintained at around 3%, and through the means of raising interest rates, a large amount of money that is conservative globally has flowed back to the United States, promoting breakthroughs in fields such as artificial intelligence and controlled nuclear fusion in clean energy, and achieving a trend of large-scale social commercialization.

Nvidia, which is known for its graphics card technology, saw its total market value soar from a range of one trillion dollars to more than three trillion dollars within a year.

It can be seen that the tidal effect of funds brought by the US dollar interest rate hike has had an unprecedented positive impact on the advanced productivity level of the US domestic economy, that is, the new quality production field we call.

Therefore, I believe that even if the overall recession of the US macroeconomy is inevitable, the combined force formed by the previous policies, as well as the rise of this wave of technological paradigm, is enough to offset the negative impact brought by the economic recession to a certain extent.

Looking back at our macroeconomic situation, since the collective suppression of Chinese concept stocks by external forces before the epidemic in 2019, it has fallen into a long-term trend of asset shrinkage.

Up to now, the price of commercial housing has only fallen by less than 30%, and the prices of other major asset categories have not been greatly fluctuated.

Although the overall trend is falling, the market prices including state-owned assets have not experienced significant fluctuations.

This is due to our country's implementation of capital control and foreign exchange settlement and sale system, which has stabilized the prices of our country's major assets to a certain extent, but also hindered the liquidity of production factor resources, and the difficulty of capital transaction marketization reform has also increased.

We can only manage the entire market economic system by normalizing special circumstances and intervening with administrative forces, which undoubtedly has a negative effect on our long-term sovereign credit and the stability of the value of legal currency.

Even if external financial risks cannot be transmitted to our internal economic system, it cannot change the fact that our country's major asset prices always have the risk of flood discharge of the barrier lake, that is, a certain degree of value bubble, no matter how long it is suppressed externally, it will eventually produce this phenomenon.

The above obviously realized the problem, and in the most important recent deliberations, as well as the "7·30" regular economic deliberations, all proposed to comprehensively deepen the institutional reform of market economy rule of law, expand the intensity of opening up to the outside world, focus on attracting foreign capital, and use foreign capital to have a positive effect on the industrial upgrading and structural transformation of our country's economy.

The tone of the above series of policies will undoubtedly enhance the confidence and expectation of overseas investors to invest in our country's major assets.

Therefore, in the recent period, along with the policy of 144-hour landing visa-free, the behavior of overseas market investors to effectively invest in our country's traditional industries or key high-tech industries is increasing.

This means that after five years, overseas capital is once again investing in our country in a systematic way, but some changes have occurred in the overall structure: before, it was mainly overseas capital from developed countries such as Europe, the United States, and Japan to invest in our country's manufacturing industry on a large scale, and now it is some public capital or private capital from friendly countries such as BRICS countries or countries belonging to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization such as the Middle East, Russia, and South Africa to invest in our country's consumer goods retail field strategically.

Looking at the high-tech field, the public ownership body and administrative organs in our country have invested on a large scale, such as planning the "8+9" industry concept in the new quality production field, and focusing on investing in industry chain central giants such as Lenovo Technology, Xiaomi, TCL, Huawei, Hikvision, DJI Technology, etc.

Therefore, not only has the investment structure undergone a fundamental change, but the investment direction has also produced some changes that conform to the trend of the times.

After talking about the acceleration of de-bubble in US stocks and the start of foreign capital bottoming out our country's major assets, as a financial author, I will focus on analyzing what these two situations mean for the global economy.

First, looking at the global economic map, the field related to economic growth will show the trend of the rise of the East and the decline of the West, but it will not last for a long time.

As mentioned in the previous text, the momentum of the economic recession on the other side of the ocean is not strong, and the duration will not be long.

In addition, due to the continuous suppression of our country's sovereign major asset value by external forces, the policy direction will not change significantly, whether the US dollar is in a cycle of interest rate reduction or interest rate increase, so the trend of the rise of the East and the decline of the West will not last for a long time.

Secondly, it is time for the geopolitical friction and interest conflicts between the two regional powers to come to an end.

Since 2018, the two major countries have carried out a series of competitions and contests in the fields of finance and technology.

At that time, the background was that the haze of the financial crisis had not dissipated, and the pressure of economic growth came again, and the natural growth rate of the economy of various countries generally declined.

The interest pattern related to the economic order of globalization cannot be properly handled by the participating countries, and even the differences have been amplified, leading to the return of regional trade protectionism, coupled with the emergence of nationalist sentiment, and the order of globalization has begun to disintegrate.

The interest group led by developed countries such as Europe, the United States, and Japan, that is, the Western forces, want to reshape the economic order of globalization including the manufacturing industry supply value chain and the international division of labor cooperation system, and as for our side, we have tried our best to ensure that the interests of the old globalization order and the division of labor system are not shaken.

As a result, the two sides have formed a confrontational pattern and have continued to this day.

In addition, regarding the trade friction and economic conflict between the two sides, as well as the financial war and technology war, according to the current situation, the economic and trade conflict seems to be inevitable, and the friction in the field of technology, as well as the differences in values or systems, is also difficult to reconcile in a short time.

However, in the financial field, both sides have shown a phenomenon of complementing each other's advantages and disadvantages.

For example, on the other side of the ocean, once the means of reducing US dollar interest rates is adopted, it will cause the consequence of capital outflow, which is very harmful to the stability of its main asset prices.

For example, on our side, the potential economic growth rate including the total factor productivity, as well as various interest rate corridors, has been a long-term downward trend, and if there is a substantial supply and demand decoupling with the world's most important consumer market, that is, the demand market led by Europe and the United States, then as the world's factory, we will inevitably face a severe situation of serious overcapacity and insufficient internal demand to digest so many commodity supplies.

At that time, what we are facing is the helplessness of having passed the Lewis population turning point, having consumed a golden period of fifteen years to develop ourselves, but still unable to extricate ourselves from the middle-income trap.

In summary, although the financial war between the two sides will end ahead of schedule in this economic recession on the other side of the ocean, and our long-term economic downturn, which has driven the global economic potential growth rate to decline further, it still cannot stop the two sides from competing and competing for political, cultural, technological, and even the economic order of globalization.

A new round of battles that last longer.In conclusion, although U.S. tech stocks, primarily in artificial intelligence or semiconductor chips, have continued to decline, which is euphemistically referred to as de-bubbleization, it actually triggers the Sam recession indicator, causing market investors to be pessimistic about the economic prospects across the ocean.

This has led to a collective plunge among U.S. tech giants, including Intel.

However, the recession in the U.S. economy has already been mitigated by many previous policies.

Although a recession will still occur, its severity is not enough to trigger a global financial crisis.

The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index and the entry of the U.S. stock market into a technical bear market have led to a short-term phenomenon of financial capital migration, characterized by the rise of the East and the decline of the West.

However, this will not last long, as one side has already properly resolved the issue of structural economic imbalances, while the other side has allowed these imbalances to continue, even accelerating and amplifying their more unbalanced forms.

In summary, even if the financial war between the two sides ends prematurely this year, a deeper battle lies ahead.

At that time, the competition will no longer be about the size and scale, but rather about the strength of the system's ability to correct errors and the speed at which the giant ship can change course.